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Fauquier, VA · ZIP 20186 · Census Tract 51061930206 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$569K
Downside (P10)
$476K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$577K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$769K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $341K | $370K | $397K | $401K | $426K | $444K | $442K | $492K | $564K | $543K | $569K | $563K | $571K | $577K |
| YoY Change | +8.6% | +7.4% | +0.9% | +6.2% | +4.1% | -0.3% | +11.2% | +14.6% | -3.7% | +4.9% | -1.0% | +1.3% | +1.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $492K | $484K | $476K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $695K | $720K | $769K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$492K to $695K
35.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$476K to $769K
50.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | $552K | $577K | +4.5% | |
| Cedar Run (Tract 930207) | $574K | $600K | +4.6% | |
| Center | $606K | $673K | +11.0% | |
| Cedar Run (Tract 930704) | $609K | $648K | +6.5% | |
| Marshall (Tract 930101) | $616K | $644K | +4.5% | |
| Marshall (Tract 930306) | $521K | $578K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | $552K | $577K | +4.5% | |
| Lee | $339K | $399K | +17.6% | |
| Center area | $514K | $583K | +13.6% | |
| Cedar Run | $494K | $558K | +13.1% | |
| Scott (Tract 930304) | $760K | $859K | +13.0% | |
| Scott (Tract 930102) | $878K | $978K | +11.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | $552K | $577K | $293K | |
| Lee (Tract 930703) | $459K | $487K | $245K | |
| Lee (Tract 930707) | $469K | $492K | $245K | |
| Lee (Tract 930706) | $339K | $399K | $247K | |
| Cedar Run | $485K | $540K | $280K | |
| Center area | $514K | $583K | $306K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.