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Frederick, VA · ZIP 22602 · Census Tract 51069050805 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$524K
Downside (P10)
$404K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$543K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$851K
+62% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +62%. The model forecasts this with 55% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $350K | $365K | $426K | $462K | $493K | $524K | $529K | $535K | $543K |
| YoY Change | +4.2% | +16.9% | +8.4% | +6.7% | +6.4% | +1.0% | +1.0% | +1.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $430K | $426K | $404K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $664K | $733K | $851K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$430K to $664K
44.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$404K to $851K
82.3% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources