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Frederick, VA · ZIP 22603 · Census Tract 51069050200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$509K
Downside (P10)
$444K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$540K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$799K
+57% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $319K | $322K | $323K | $333K | $334K | $357K | $374K | $426K | $451K | $496K | $509K | $513K | $529K | $540K |
| YoY Change | +0.8% | +0.3% | +3.1% | +0.5% | +6.9% | +4.5% | +14.1% | +5.8% | +10.0% | +2.5% | +0.9% | +3.1% | +2.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $469K | $460K | $444K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $647K | $758K | $799K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$469K to $647K
34.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$444K to $799K
65.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stonewall area | $501K | $540K | +7.9% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050805) | $508K | $543K | +6.8% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050900) | $463K | $503K | +8.6% | |
| Opequon | $460K | $509K | +10.7% | |
| Shawnee (Tract 050806) | $441K | $490K | +11.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stonewall area | $501K | $540K | +7.9% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | +15.1% | |
| Back Creek | $410K | $460K | +12.4% | |
| Stonewall | $420K | $471K | +12.2% | |
| Shawnee | $346K | $387K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stonewall area | $501K | $540K | $355K | |
| Stonewall | $216K | $229K | $124K | |
| Gainesboro | $384K | $404K | $171K | |
| Opequon | $364K | $398K | $188K | |
| Red Bud | $390K | $416K | $190K | |
| Back Creek area | $375K | $395K | $205K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.