Frederick, VA · ZIP 22637 · Census Tract 51069050402 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$395K
Downside (P10)
$288K
-27% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$417K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$565K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -27% to +43%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Frederick markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $240K | $261K | $325K | $357K | $379K | $395K | $398K | $417K | $417K | $392K |
| YoY Change | +8.4% | +24.8% | +9.9% | +6.0% | +4.2% | +0.9% | +4.7% | -0.1% | -5.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $313K | $301K | $288K | $353K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $486K | $533K | $565K | $437K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$313K to $486K
43.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$353K to $437K
21.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back Creek area | $387K | $417K | +7.7% | |
| Red Bud | $390K | $416K | +6.6% | |
| Gainesboro | $384K | $404K | +5.2% | |
| Back Creek | $410K | $460K | +12.4% | |
| Back Creek area | $375K | $395K | +5.3% | |
| Stonewall | $420K | $471K | +12.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back Creek area | $387K | $417K | +7.7% | |
| Red Bud area | $467K | $543K | +16.5% | |
| Red Bud | $281K | $323K | +15.1% | |
| Back Creek | $410K | $460K | +12.4% | |
| Stonewall | $420K | $471K | +12.2% | |
| Shawnee | $346K | $387K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back Creek area | $387K | $417K | $277K | |
| Stonewall | $216K | $229K | $124K | |
| Gainesboro | $384K | $404K | $171K | |
| Opequon | $364K | $398K | $188K | |
| Red Bud | $390K | $416K | $190K | |
| Back Creek area | $375K | $395K | $205K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.