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Hanover, VA · ZIP 23111 · Census Tract 51085321201 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$300K
Downside (P10)
$251K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$318K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$411K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $198K | $206K | $217K | $225K | $227K | $227K | $234K | $261K | $267K | $290K | $300K | $306K | $309K | $318K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$102,178 | -$94,578 | -$82,878 | -$75,078 | -$73,678 | -$73,578 | -$66,378 | -$38,878 | -$33,178 | -$10,778 | +$5,440 | +$8,492 | +$18,081 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.0% | -31.5% | -27.6% | -25.0% | -24.5% | -24.5% | -22.1% | -12.9% | -11.0% | -3.6% | +1.8% | +2.8% | +6.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $264K | $267K | $251K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $353K | $387K | $411K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$264K to $353K
29.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$251K to $411K
50.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Harbor | $300K | $318K | +6.2% | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321202) | $278K | $314K | +13.2% | |
| Ashland (Tract 320601) | $354K | $396K | +11.6% | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321003) | $306K | $335K | +9.4% | |
| Ashland (Tract 320602) | $267K | $292K | +9.4% | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321100) | $351K | $356K | +1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Harbor | $300K | $318K | +6.2% | |
| Cold Harbor (Tract 321300) | $368K | $445K | +21.1% | |
| Cold Harbor (Tract 321403) | $474K | $554K | +16.8% | |
| Beaverdam | $446K | $515K | +15.2% | |
| Beaverdam area | $382K | $433K | +13.3% | |
| Mechanicsville | $278K | $314K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Harbor | $300K | $318K | $159K | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321001) | $367K | $393K | $210K | |
| Ashland (Tract 320601) | $354K | $396K | $202K | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321202) | $278K | $314K | $199K | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321100) | $351K | $356K | $187K | |
| Ashland (Tract 320602) | $267K | $292K | $156K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Hanover, VA · ZIP 23111 · Census Tract 51085321201 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$300K
Downside (P10)
$251K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$318K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$411K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $198K | $206K | $217K | $225K | $227K | $227K | $234K | $261K | $267K | $290K | $300K | $306K | $309K | $318K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$102,178 | -$94,578 | -$82,878 | -$75,078 | -$73,678 | -$73,578 | -$66,378 | -$38,878 | -$33,178 | -$10,778 | +$5,440 | +$8,492 | +$18,081 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -34.0% | -31.5% | -27.6% | -25.0% | -24.5% | -24.5% | -22.1% | -12.9% | -11.0% | -3.6% | +1.8% | +2.8% | +6.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $264K | $267K | $251K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $353K | $387K | $411K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$264K to $353K
29.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$251K to $411K
50.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Harbor | $300K | $318K | +6.2% | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321202) | $278K | $314K | +13.2% | |
| Ashland (Tract 320601) | $354K | $396K | +11.6% | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321003) | $306K | $335K | +9.4% | |
| Ashland (Tract 320602) | $267K | $292K | +9.4% | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321100) | $351K | $356K | +1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Harbor | $300K | $318K | +6.2% | |
| Cold Harbor (Tract 321300) | $368K | $445K | +21.1% | |
| Cold Harbor (Tract 321403) | $474K | $554K | +16.8% | |
| Beaverdam | $446K | $515K | +15.2% | |
| Beaverdam area | $382K | $433K | +13.3% | |
| Mechanicsville | $278K | $314K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Harbor | $300K | $318K | $159K | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321001) | $367K | $393K | $210K | |
| Ashland (Tract 320601) | $354K | $396K | $202K | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321202) | $278K | $314K | $199K | |
| Mechanicsville (Tract 321100) | $351K | $356K | $187K | |
| Ashland (Tract 320602) | $267K | $292K | $156K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
