What is the home price forecast for Lake of the Woods?

Homecastr forecasts Lake of the Woods median home values at $399,266 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 3.1%.

How confident is the Lake of the Woods forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $326,657 (downside) to $624,366 (upside), with a spread of 72% of median.

Lake of the Woods Home Price Forecast

Orange, VA · ZIP 22508 · Census Tract 51137110107 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$399K

Downside (P10)

$327K

-18% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$412K

+3% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$624K

+56% by 2030

Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +56%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Orange markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$284K	$300K	$359K	$377K	$395K	$399K	$404K	$416K	$412K
YoY Change		+5.7%	+19.5%	+5.2%	+4.6%	+1.2%	+1.3%	+2.9%	-1.0%
Downside (P10)							$356K	$341K	$327K
Upside (P90)							$499K	$568K	$624K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$356K to $499K

35.5% of median

5-Year Spread

$327K to $624K

72.3% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +3.1% · Spread: 72%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Lake of the Woods	$397K	$412K	+3.8%
4	$403K	$441K	+9.4%
1	$375K	$401K	+6.9%
4 area	$373K	$398K	+6.6%
4	$353K	$364K	+3.2%
2	$331K	$340K	+2.8%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Lake of the Woods	$397K	$412K	+3.8%
3 area	$302K	$339K	+12.2%
4	$403K	$441K	+9.4%
2	$278K	$302K	+9.0%
1	$375K	$401K	+6.9%
4 area	$373K	$398K	+6.6%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Lake of the Woods	$397K	$412K	$298K
2	$331K	$340K	$146K
2	$278K	$302K	$154K
3 area	$302K	$339K	$191K
1	$375K	$401K	$196K
4	$353K	$364K	$215K

Location

Lake of the Woods on map

Open Full Map ↗

Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).