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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Patrick, VA · Census Tract 51141680008 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.02M
Downside (P10)
$570K
-44% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$958K
-6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.62M
+59% by 2030
Base case: -6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -44% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 40% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.0M | $1.0M | $929K | $926K | $958K |
| YoY Change | +0.3% | -9.0% | -0.3% | +3.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $694K | $586K | $557K | $570K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$694K to $1.39M
68.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$570K to $1.62M
109.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smith River area | $1.02M | $958K | -5.9% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 760009) | $885K | $882K | -0.3% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 880002) | $843K | $840K | -0.4% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 520003) | $839K | $799K | -4.7% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 720007) | $1.01M | $926K | -8.7% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 200006) | $1.11M | $950K | -14.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smith River area | $1.02M | $958K | -5.9% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 760009) | $885K | $882K | -0.3% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 880002) | $843K | $840K | -0.4% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 520003) | $839K | $799K | -4.7% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 280000) | $836K | $774K | -7.3% | |
| Smith River area (Tract 720007) | $1.01M | $926K | -8.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smith River area | $1.02M | $958K | $1.05M | |
| Smith River area (Tract 760009) | $885K | $882K | $965K | |
| Smith River area (Tract 880002) | $843K | $840K | $876K | |
| Smith River area (Tract 200006) | $1.11M | $950K | $802K | |
| Smith River area (Tract 520003) | $839K | $799K | $770K | |
| Smith River area (Tract 720007) | $1.01M | $926K | $622K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources