What is the home price forecast for Tract 011040?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 011040 median home values at $438,098 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 15.2%.

How confident is the Tract 011040 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $256,243 (downside) to $849,806 (upside), with a spread of 118% of median.

What is the home price forecast for Tract 011040?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 011040 median home values at $438,098 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 15.2%.

How confident is the Tract 011040 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $256,243 (downside) to $849,806 (upside), with a spread of 118% of median.

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Tract 011040 Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Tract 011040 Home Price Forecast

Prince Edward, VA · Census Tract 51147011040 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$438K

Downside (P10)

$256K

-42% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$505K

+15% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$850K

+94% by 2030

Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -42% to +94%. The model forecasts this with 35% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$438K	$467K	$464K	$470K	$505K
Growth $ vs 2026		+$29,217	+$26,258	+$31,598	+$66,765
Growth % vs 2026		+6.7%	+6.0%	+7.2%	+15.2%
Downside (P10)		$314K	$274K	$262K	$256K
Upside (P90)		$670K	$710K	$731K	$850K

Location

Tract 011040 on map

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Forecast Confidence

35%

Low Confidence

The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.

Near-term band

$314K to $670K

76.0% of median

Long-horizon band

$256K to $850K

117.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +15.2% · Spread: 118%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 011040	$438K	$505K	+15.2%
Prince Edward (Tract 001089)	$438K	$547K	+25.0%
Prince Edward (Tract 013268)	$437K	$535K	+22.5%
Prince Edward (Tract 010481)	$439K	$522K	+19.0%
Prince Edward (Tract 000763)	$437K	$519K	+18.7%
Prince Edward (Tract 001160)	$439K	$514K	+17.0%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 011040	$438K	$505K	+15.2%
Prince Edward (Tract 045401)	$486K	$797K	+63.9%
Prince Edward (Tract 045485)	$472K	$720K	+52.8%
Prince Edward (Tract 045142)	$486K	$724K	+48.9%
Prince Edward (Tract 040723)	$489K	$711K	+45.4%
Prince Edward (Tract 000828)	$440K	$621K	+41.1%

Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).