What is the home price forecast for Tract 040561?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 040561 median home values at $435,108 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 26.7%.

How confident is the Tract 040561 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $347,478 (downside) to $913,434 (upside), with a spread of 103% of median.

What is the home price forecast for Tract 040561?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 040561 median home values at $435,108 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 26.7%.

How confident is the Tract 040561 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $347,478 (downside) to $913,434 (upside), with a spread of 103% of median.

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Tract 040561 Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Tract 040561 Home Price Forecast

Prince Edward, VA · Census Tract 51147040561 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$435K

Downside (P10)

$347K

-20% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$551K

+27% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$913K

+110% by 2030

Base case: +27% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +110%. The model forecasts this with 44% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$435K	$483K	$503K	$512K	$551K
Growth $ vs 2026		+$48,200	+$67,554	+$76,964	+$116,244
Growth % vs 2026		+11.1%	+15.5%	+17.7%	+26.7%
Downside (P10)		$358K	$357K	$343K	$347K
Upside (P90)		$666K	$731K	$815K	$913K

Location

Tract 040561 on map

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Forecast Confidence

44%

Lower Confidence

The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.

Near-term band

$358K to $666K

63.7% of median

Long-horizon band

$347K to $913K

102.6% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +26.7% · Spread: 103%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 040561	$435K	$551K	+26.7%
Prince Edward (Tract 045346)	$435K	$543K	+24.9%
Prince Edward (Tract 045883)	$435K	$539K	+24.0%
Prince Edward (Tract 001283)	$434K	$519K	+19.8%
Prince Edward (Tract 013501)	$436K	$508K	+16.6%
Prince Edward (Tract 013585)	$435K	$506K	+16.2%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 040561	$435K	$551K	+26.7%
Prince Edward (Tract 045401)	$486K	$797K	+63.9%
Prince Edward (Tract 045485)	$472K	$720K	+52.8%
Prince Edward (Tract 045142)	$486K	$724K	+48.9%
Prince Edward (Tract 040723)	$489K	$711K	+45.4%
Prince Edward (Tract 000828)	$440K	$621K	+41.1%

Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).