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Rockingham, VA · ZIP 22821 · Census Tract 51165011400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$412K
Downside (P10)
$360K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$440K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$572K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $243K | $250K | $249K | $265K | $295K | $309K | $313K | $371K | $408K | $403K | $412K | $413K | $424K | $440K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$169,595 | -$161,795 | -$162,995 | -$147,295 | -$116,695 | -$103,295 | -$98,895 | -$40,995 | -$4,495 | -$9,395 | +$1,177 | +$12,250 | +$28,174 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.2% | -39.3% | -39.6% | -35.7% | -28.3% | -25.1% | -24.0% | -9.9% | -1.1% | -2.3% | +0.3% | +3.0% | +6.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $356K | $362K | $360K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $548K | $562K | $572K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$356K to $548K
46.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$360K to $572K
48.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central area | $411K | $440K | +7.2% | |
| Ashby (Tract 011801) | $390K | $440K | +12.8% | |
| Ashby (Tract 011500) | $393K | $443K | +12.5% | |
| Ashby (Tract 011600) | $374K | $420K | +12.2% | |
| Stonewall | $393K | $437K | +11.2% | |
| Stonewall area | $375K | $392K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central area | $411K | $440K | +7.2% | |
| Plains | $261K | $308K | +18.2% | |
| Stonewall (Tract 010200) | $244K | $283K | +16.0% | |
| Stonewall (Tract 012000) | $281K | $323K | +15.2% | |
| Ashby | $390K | $440K | +12.8% | |
| Central | $308K | $346K | +12.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central area | $411K | $440K | $213K | |
| Stonewall (Tract 010200) | $244K | $283K | $142K | |
| Plains (Tract 010802) | $261K | $308K | $140K | |
| Plains (Tract 010801) | $257K | $268K | $115K | |
| Stonewall (Tract 010100) | $215K | $237K | $114K | |
| Plains (Tract 011000) | $216K | $235K | $95K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Rockingham, VA · ZIP 22821 · Census Tract 51165011400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$412K
Downside (P10)
$360K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$440K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$572K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $243K | $250K | $249K | $265K | $295K | $309K | $313K | $371K | $408K | $403K | $412K | $413K | $424K | $440K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$169,595 | -$161,795 | -$162,995 | -$147,295 | -$116,695 | -$103,295 | -$98,895 | -$40,995 | -$4,495 | -$9,395 | +$1,177 | +$12,250 | +$28,174 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.2% | -39.3% | -39.6% | -35.7% | -28.3% | -25.1% | -24.0% | -9.9% | -1.1% | -2.3% | +0.3% | +3.0% | +6.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $356K | $362K | $360K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $548K | $562K | $572K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$356K to $548K
46.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$360K to $572K
48.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central area | $411K | $440K | +7.2% | |
| Ashby (Tract 011801) | $390K | $440K | +12.8% | |
| Ashby (Tract 011500) | $393K | $443K | +12.5% | |
| Ashby (Tract 011600) | $374K | $420K | +12.2% | |
| Stonewall | $393K | $437K | +11.2% | |
| Stonewall area | $375K | $392K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central area | $411K | $440K | +7.2% | |
| Plains | $261K | $308K | +18.2% | |
| Stonewall (Tract 010200) | $244K | $283K | +16.0% | |
| Stonewall (Tract 012000) | $281K | $323K | +15.2% | |
| Ashby | $390K | $440K | +12.8% | |
| Central | $308K | $346K | +12.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central area | $411K | $440K | $213K | |
| Stonewall (Tract 010200) | $244K | $283K | $142K | |
| Plains (Tract 010802) | $261K | $308K | $140K | |
| Plains (Tract 010801) | $257K | $268K | $115K | |
| Stonewall (Tract 010100) | $215K | $237K | $114K | |
| Plains (Tract 011000) | $216K | $235K | $95K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
