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Smyth, VA · ZIP 24354 · Census Tract 51173030302 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$200K
Downside (P10)
$165K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$221K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$294K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $109K | $126K | $108K | $114K | $112K | $111K | $118K | $166K | $184K | $194K | $200K | $201K | $216K | $221K |
| YoY Change | +16.3% | -14.4% | +5.1% | -1.7% | -0.4% | +5.8% | +41.3% | +10.9% | +5.0% | +3.3% | +0.5% | +7.5% | +2.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $178K | $179K | $165K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $251K | $272K | $294K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$178K to $251K
36.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$165K to $294K
58.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park area | $197K | $221K | +12.0% | |
| North Fork | $156K | $186K | +18.6% | |
| Royal Oak area | $125K | $139K | +10.7% | |
| Rye Valley (Tract 030702) | $160K | $171K | +6.8% | |
| Rye Valley (Tract 030500) | $132K | $136K | +3.3% | |
| North Fork area | $151K | $155K | +2.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park area | $197K | $221K | +12.0% | |
| North Fork (Tract 030301) | $156K | $186K | +18.6% | |
| North Fork (Tract 030100) | $88K | $104K | +17.8% | |
| Royal Oak area | $125K | $139K | +10.7% | |
| Rye Valley area | $115K | $123K | +7.1% | |
| Rye Valley | $160K | $171K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park area | $197K | $221K | $128K | |
| North Fork area | $151K | $155K | $80K | |
| Rye Valley area | $115K | $123K | $63K | |
| Saltville | $109K | $110K | $60K | |
| Rye Valley | $132K | $136K | $60K | |
| North Fork | $88K | $104K | $53K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.