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Virginia Beach, VA · ZIP 23453 · Census Tract 51810046013 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$253K
Downside (P10)
$221K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$261K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$339K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $172K | $163K | $163K | $151K | $162K | $176K | $199K | $214K | $231K | $254K | $253K | $250K | $256K | $261K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$81,359 | -$89,659 | -$89,859 | -$102,159 | -$90,659 | -$76,659 | -$53,659 | -$39,359 | -$22,159 | +$741 | -$3,173 | +$3,306 | +$7,999 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.2% | -35.5% | -35.5% | -40.4% | -35.9% | -30.3% | -21.2% | -15.6% | -8.8% | +0.3% | -1.3% | +1.3% | +3.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $225K | $225K | $221K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $292K | $325K | $339K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$225K to $292K
27.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$221K to $339K
45.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach | $254K | $261K | +2.8% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044808) | $257K | $294K | +14.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045807) | $253K | $284K | +12.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045428) | $257K | $285K | +10.9% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046213) | $258K | $282K | +9.2% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046020) | $260K | $278K | +7.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach | $254K | $261K | +2.8% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043005) | $529K | $634K | +20.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046211) | $406K | $480K | +18.2% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045415) | $313K | $368K | +17.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044005) | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046009) | $371K | $432K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach | $254K | $261K | $118K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 041002) | $240K | $270K | $143K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045810) | $245K | $264K | $135K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040200) | $244K | $268K | $123K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040406) | $226K | $236K | $112K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040405) | $186K | $194K | $100K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Virginia Beach, VA · ZIP 23453 · Census Tract 51810046013 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$253K
Downside (P10)
$221K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$261K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$339K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $172K | $163K | $163K | $151K | $162K | $176K | $199K | $214K | $231K | $254K | $253K | $250K | $256K | $261K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$81,359 | -$89,659 | -$89,859 | -$102,159 | -$90,659 | -$76,659 | -$53,659 | -$39,359 | -$22,159 | +$741 | -$3,173 | +$3,306 | +$7,999 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.2% | -35.5% | -35.5% | -40.4% | -35.9% | -30.3% | -21.2% | -15.6% | -8.8% | +0.3% | -1.3% | +1.3% | +3.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $225K | $225K | $221K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $292K | $325K | $339K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$225K to $292K
27.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$221K to $339K
45.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach | $254K | $261K | +2.8% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044808) | $257K | $294K | +14.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045807) | $253K | $284K | +12.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045428) | $257K | $285K | +10.9% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046213) | $258K | $282K | +9.2% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046020) | $260K | $278K | +7.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach | $254K | $261K | +2.8% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043005) | $529K | $634K | +20.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046211) | $406K | $480K | +18.2% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045415) | $313K | $368K | +17.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044005) | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046009) | $371K | $432K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach | $254K | $261K | $118K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 041002) | $240K | $270K | $143K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045810) | $245K | $264K | $135K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040200) | $244K | $268K | $123K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040406) | $226K | $236K | $112K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040405) | $186K | $194K | $100K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
