Warren, VA · ZIP 22630 · Census Tract 51187020500 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$305K
Downside (P10)
$261K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$311K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$464K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +52%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Warren markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $145K | $151K | $149K | $155K | $165K | $192K | $211K | $241K | $266K | $293K | $305K | $309K | $307K | $311K | $306K |
| YoY Change | +4.1% | -1.4% | +3.6% | +6.8% | +16.4% | +9.8% | +14.4% | +10.4% | +9.9% | +4.2% | +1.3% | -0.5% | +1.4% | -1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $265K | $262K | $261K | $266K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $387K | $422K | $464K | $347K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$265K to $387K
39.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$266K to $347K
26.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Front Royal · 22630 · (Tract 205) | $298K | $311K | +4.7% | |
| Shenandoah Farms | $282K | $298K | +5.8% | |
| Fork | $337K | $354K | +5.1% | |
| South River | $346K | $373K | +7.6% | |
| Front Royal | $253K | $260K | +2.7% | |
| South River | $374K | $384K | +2.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Front Royal · 22630 · (Tract 205) | $298K | $311K | +4.7% | |
| North River | $498K | $544K | +9.3% | |
| South River | $346K | $373K | +7.6% | |
| Happy Creek | $412K | $442K | +7.2% | |
| Shenandoah Farms | $282K | $298K | +5.8% | |
| Fork | $337K | $354K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Front Royal · 22630 · (Tract 205) | $298K | $311K | $203K | |
| Shenandoah Farms | $282K | $298K | $171K | |
| Front Royal | $253K | $260K | $174K | |
| Fork | $337K | $354K | $176K | |
| Shenandoah | $377K | $395K | $186K | |
| South River | $346K | $373K | $209K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.