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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Winchester, VA · Census Tract 51840160007 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$240K
Downside (P10)
$217K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$350K
+46% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$531K
+121% by 2030
Base case: +46% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +121%. The model forecasts this with 51% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $240K | $284K | $309K | $315K | $350K |
| YoY Change | +18.4% | +8.8% | +2.2% | +10.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $219K | $213K | $206K | $217K | |
| Upside (P90) | $390K | $442K | $490K | $531K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. This typically reflects limited transaction history, high price variance, or rapid neighborhood change.
1-Year Spread
$219K to $390K
60.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$217K to $531K
89.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 160007 | $240K | $350K | +46.0% | |
| Winchester (Tract 200006) | $232K | $334K | +44.0% | |
| Winchester (Tract 680008) | $320K | $432K | +35.3% | |
| Winchester (Tract 080006) | $282K | $379K | +34.5% | |
| Winchester (Tract 240008) | $315K | $417K | +32.3% | |
| Winchester (Tract 440002) | $318K | $417K | +31.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 160007 | $240K | $350K | +46.0% | |
| Winchester (Tract 200006) | $232K | $334K | +44.0% | |
| Winchester (Tract 680008) | $320K | $432K | +35.3% | |
| Winchester (Tract 080006) | $282K | $379K | +34.5% | |
| Winchester (Tract 240008) | $315K | $417K | +32.3% | |
| Winchester (Tract 440002) | $318K | $417K | +31.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 160007 | $240K | $350K | $314K | |
| Winchester (Tract 240008) | $315K | $417K | $473K | |
| Winchester (Tract 680008) | $320K | $432K | $436K | |
| Winchester (Tract 440002) | $318K | $417K | $420K | |
| Winchester (Tract 080006) | $282K | $379K | $353K | |
| Winchester (Tract 200006) | $232K | $334K | $338K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources