County 50940, VT · Census Tract 50940009483 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.26M
Downside (P10)
$933K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.13M
-10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.38M
+9% by 2030
Base case: -10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +9%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 50940 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | +3.2% | -11.6% | -5.5% | +4.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.1M | $973K | $890K | $933K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.16M to $1.41M
19.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$933K to $1.38M
39.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 011468 | $1.27M | $1.26M | -0.3% |
| Tract 009768 | $1.24M | $1.18M | -4.8% |
| Tract 009564 | $1.21M | $1.16M | -3.8% |
| Tract 010647 | $1.21M | $1.16M | -4.1% |
| Tract 009700 | $1.33M | $1.80M | +35.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 004763 | $315K | $534K | +69.7% |
| Tract 004585 | $405K | $657K | +62.1% |
| Tract 004608 | $295K | $469K | +59.1% |
| Tract 005461 | $183K | $275K | +50.2% |
| Tract 005380 | $232K | $346K | +49.1% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources