County 53421, WA · Census Tract 53421500408 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$420K
Downside (P10)
$358K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$565K
+35% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$917K
+118% by 2030
Base case: +35% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +118%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 53421 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $420K | $478K | $504K | $530K | $565K |
| YoY Change | +13.9% | +5.2% | +5.3% | +6.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $369K | $348K | $343K | $358K | |
| Upside (P90) | $664K | $719K | $831K | $917K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$366K to $532K
39.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$358K to $917K
99.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 501342 | $423K | $577K | +36.4% |
| Tract 500961 | $424K | $575K | +35.7% |
| Tract 500149 | $416K | $532K | +27.9% |
| Tract 500220 | $424K | $585K | +38.0% |
| Tract 500181 | $426K | $577K | +35.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 601666 | $341K | $516K | +51.4% |
| Tract 601161 | $338K | $502K | +48.5% |
| Tract 601145 | $329K | $480K | +45.7% |
| Tract 600900 | $353K | $505K | +43.0% |
| Tract 600405 | $322K | $459K | +42.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600463 | $325K | $396K | $317K |
| Tract 750041 | $314K | $411K | $341K |
| Tract 600586 | $330K | $430K | $345K |
| Tract 751024 | $307K | $430K | $354K |
| Tract 600528 | $327K | $423K | $366K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources