What is the home price forecast for Parcel 53015002003 in Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $435,980 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 9.9%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 53015002003 in Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $435,980 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 9.9%.

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Parcel 53015002003 (Castle Rock) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 53015002003, Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3) Home Price Forecast

Cowlitz, WA · ZIP 98611 · Census Tract 53015002003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$436K

Downside (P10)

$382K

-12% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$479K

+10% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$597K

+37% by 2030

Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$212K	$249K	$305K	$373K	$426K	$436K	$447K	$474K	$479K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$223,880	-$187,480	-$130,780	-$63,180	-$9,680		+$10,637	+$38,493	+$43,188
Growth % vs 2026	-51.4%	-43.0%	-30.0%	-14.5%	-2.2%		+2.4%	+8.8%	+9.9%
Downside (P10)							$377K	$400K	$382K
Upside (P90)							$556K	$570K	$597K

Forecast Confidence

75%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$377K to $556K

40.1% of median

Long-horizon band

$382K to $597K

44.8% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +9.9% · Spread: 45%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 53015002003, Castle Rock · 98611 · (Tract 20.3) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).