Jefferson, WA · ZIP 98368 · Census Tract 53031950602 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$505K
Downside (P10)
$443K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$523K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$723K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +43%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Jefferson markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $279K | $273K | $297K | $308K | $319K | $330K | $350K | $404K | $451K | $489K | $505K | $514K | $535K | $523K |
| YoY Change | -2.2% | +8.6% | +3.7% | +3.5% | +3.5% | +6.1% | +15.5% | +11.7% | +8.5% | +3.2% | +1.9% | +3.9% | -2.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $454K | $449K | $443K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $604K | $663K | $723K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$454K to $604K
29.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$443K to $723K
53.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend · Port Townsend · (Tract 9506.2) | $495K | $523K | +5.6% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $558K | $547K | -2.0% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $598K | $638K | +6.8% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $602K | $612K | +1.7% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | +6.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend · Port Townsend · (Tract 9506.2) | $495K | $523K | +5.6% | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | +13.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $644K | $716K | +11.1% | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $668K | $737K | +10.3% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $547K | $598K | +9.4% | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $598K | $638K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend · Port Townsend · (Tract 9506.2) | $495K | $523K | $280K | |
| West End | $258K | $275K | $152K | |
| Quilcene Bay-Brinnon | $334K | $377K | $157K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $403K | $430K | $213K | |
| Discovery Bay-Port Townsend | $558K | $547K | $262K | |
| Oak Bay-Port Ludlow | $644K | $716K | $336K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.