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Pierce, WA · ZIP 98404 · Census Tract 53053062300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$400K
Downside (P10)
$358K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$440K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$543K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $152K | $156K | $164K | $197K | $218K | $236K | $276K | $333K | $360K | $390K | $400K | $406K | $423K | $440K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$248,791 | -$243,891 | -$236,391 | -$203,291 | -$182,491 | -$164,291 | -$124,391 | -$67,291 | -$39,991 | -$10,191 | +$5,951 | +$23,199 | +$39,325 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -62.2% | -60.9% | -59.1% | -50.8% | -45.6% | -41.0% | -31.1% | -16.8% | -10.0% | -2.5% | +1.5% | +5.8% | +9.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $358K | $351K | $358K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $485K | $513K | $543K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$358K to $485K
31.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$358K to $543K
41.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacoma · 98404 · (Tract 623) | $397K | $440K | +10.8% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063301) | $410K | $444K | +8.3% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071604) | $407K | $439K | +7.9% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062501) | $410K | $441K | +7.6% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062902) | $398K | $424K | +6.4% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062901) | $400K | $407K | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacoma · 98404 · (Tract 623) | $397K | $440K | +10.8% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 060700) | $698K | $846K | +21.2% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 072309) | $712K | $859K | +20.7% | |
| Parkland | $481K | $580K | +20.5% | |
| Fircrest | $594K | $716K | +20.5% | |
| Puyallup | $527K | $633K | +20.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacoma · 98404 · (Tract 623) | $397K | $440K | $184K | |
| Lakewood | $328K | $346K | $199K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063200) | $414K | $457K | $191K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071703) | $281K | $301K | $175K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063000) | $378K | $436K | $170K | |
| Parkland | $382K | $401K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pierce, WA · ZIP 98404 · Census Tract 53053062300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$400K
Downside (P10)
$358K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$440K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$543K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $152K | $156K | $164K | $197K | $218K | $236K | $276K | $333K | $360K | $390K | $400K | $406K | $423K | $440K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$248,791 | -$243,891 | -$236,391 | -$203,291 | -$182,491 | -$164,291 | -$124,391 | -$67,291 | -$39,991 | -$10,191 | +$5,951 | +$23,199 | +$39,325 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -62.2% | -60.9% | -59.1% | -50.8% | -45.6% | -41.0% | -31.1% | -16.8% | -10.0% | -2.5% | +1.5% | +5.8% | +9.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $358K | $351K | $358K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $485K | $513K | $543K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$358K to $485K
31.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$358K to $543K
41.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacoma · 98404 · (Tract 623) | $397K | $440K | +10.8% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063301) | $410K | $444K | +8.3% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071604) | $407K | $439K | +7.9% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062501) | $410K | $441K | +7.6% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062902) | $398K | $424K | +6.4% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 062901) | $400K | $407K | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacoma · 98404 · (Tract 623) | $397K | $440K | +10.8% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 060700) | $698K | $846K | +21.2% | |
| Tacoma (Tract 072309) | $712K | $859K | +20.7% | |
| Parkland | $481K | $580K | +20.5% | |
| Fircrest | $594K | $716K | +20.5% | |
| Puyallup | $527K | $633K | +20.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacoma · 98404 · (Tract 623) | $397K | $440K | $184K | |
| Lakewood | $328K | $346K | $199K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063200) | $414K | $457K | $191K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 071703) | $281K | $301K | $175K | |
| Tacoma (Tract 063000) | $378K | $436K | $170K | |
| Parkland | $382K | $401K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
