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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
San Juan, WA · ZIP 98261 · Census Tract 53055960501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$833K
Downside (P10)
$682K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$897K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.18M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $532K | $565K | $637K | $715K | $793K | $833K | $846K | $864K | $897K |
| YoY Change | +6.2% | +12.7% | +12.3% | +10.9% | +5.1% | +1.6% | +2.0% | +3.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $724K | $718K | $682K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$724K to $1.03M
36.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$682K to $1.18M
55.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez | $817K | $897K | +9.7% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960101) | $784K | $922K | +17.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960103) | $896K | $998K | +11.4% | |
| San Juan Island (Tract 960301) | $923K | $1.01M | +9.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960102) | $929K | $1.02M | +9.5% | |
| San Juan Island (Tract 960302) | $841K | $917K | +9.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez | $817K | $897K | +9.7% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960101) | $784K | $922K | +17.6% | |
| Lopez | $718K | $808K | +12.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960103) | $896K | $998K | +11.4% | |
| San Juan Island | $923K | $1.01M | +9.6% | |
| Orcas (Tract 960102) | $929K | $1.02M | +9.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez | $817K | $897K | $501K | |
| San Juan Island (Tract 960301) | $923K | $1.01M | $550K | |
| Orcas (Tract 960101) | $784K | $922K | $482K | |
| Lopez | $718K | $808K | $465K | |
| San Juan Island (Tract 960400) | $682K | $726K | $441K | |
| Orcas (Tract 960103) | $896K | $998K | $413K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.