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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Thurston, WA · ZIP 98516 · Census Tract 53067012226 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$588K
Downside (P10)
$479K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$608K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$875K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $360K | $385K | $498K | $551K | $578K | $588K | $598K | $619K | $608K |
| YoY Change | +6.9% | +29.2% | +10.6% | +5.0% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +3.5% | -1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $488K | $503K | $479K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $746K | $831K | $875K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$488K to $746K
43.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$479K to $875K
65.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia · 98516 · (Tract 122.26) | $592K | $608K | +2.7% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012532) | $579K | $663K | +14.5% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012610) | $592K | $659K | +11.3% | |
| Olympia (Tract 010400) | $596K | $655K | +10.0% | |
| Olympia (Tract 012001) | $579K | $611K | +5.5% | |
| Olympia West | $582K | $588K | +0.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia · 98516 · (Tract 122.26) | $592K | $608K | +2.7% | |
| Olympia (Tract 012211) | $700K | $827K | +18.2% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012620) | $388K | $454K | +17.0% | |
| Olympia East | $455K | $532K | +17.0% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012532) | $579K | $663K | +14.5% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011722) | $557K | $636K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia · 98516 · (Tract 122.26) | $592K | $608K | $396K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010520) | $448K | $501K | $205K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011200) | $343K | $371K | $197K | |
| Thurston South | $424K | $443K | $194K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011300) | $315K | $345K | $165K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010510) | $94K | $101K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.