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Thurston, WA · ZIP 98503 · Census Tract 53067011627 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$460K
Downside (P10)
$380K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$494K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$648K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $247K | $274K | $297K | $390K | $437K | $460K | $470K | $488K | $494K |
| YoY Change | +11.1% | +8.3% | +31.3% | +12.1% | +5.3% | +2.1% | +3.9% | +1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $388K | $373K | $380K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $576K | $617K | $648K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$388K to $576K
39.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$380K to $648K
54.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $451K | $494K | +9.6% | |
| Olympia East | $455K | $532K | +17.0% | |
| Lacey (Tract 011623) | $460K | $511K | +11.2% | |
| Olympia | $463K | $512K | +10.7% | |
| Lacey (Tract 011421) | $465K | $512K | +10.1% | |
| Thurston South | $455K | $495K | +8.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $451K | $494K | +9.6% | |
| Olympia (Tract 012211) | $700K | $827K | +18.2% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012620) | $388K | $454K | +17.0% | |
| Olympia East | $455K | $532K | +17.0% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012532) | $579K | $663K | +14.5% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011722) | $557K | $636K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia | $451K | $494K | $269K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010520) | $448K | $501K | $205K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011200) | $343K | $371K | $197K | |
| Thurston South | $424K | $443K | $194K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011300) | $315K | $345K | $165K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010510) | $94K | $101K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.