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Thurston, WA · ZIP 98516 · Census Tract 53067012330 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$441K
Downside (P10)
$349K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$480K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$630K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $179K | $182K | $186K | $212K | $218K | $255K | $266K | $344K | $377K | $425K | $441K | $453K | $455K | $480K |
| YoY Change | +2.1% | +2.2% | +13.7% | +2.9% | +16.7% | +4.4% | +29.5% | +9.6% | +12.5% | +3.8% | +2.8% | +0.6% | +5.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $366K | $357K | $349K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $550K | $569K | $630K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$366K to $550K
40.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$349K to $630K
58.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia East | $433K | $480K | +10.9% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011626) | $438K | $487K | +11.1% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011500) | $444K | $488K | +9.8% | |
| Olympia (Tract 010300) | $442K | $480K | +8.7% | |
| Olympia East | $444K | $479K | +8.0% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011624) | $436K | $468K | +7.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia East | $433K | $480K | +10.9% | |
| Olympia (Tract 012211) | $700K | $827K | +18.2% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012620) | $388K | $454K | +17.0% | |
| Olympia East | $455K | $532K | +17.0% | |
| Thurston South (Tract 012532) | $579K | $663K | +14.5% | |
| Olympia (Tract 011722) | $557K | $636K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympia East | $433K | $480K | $281K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010520) | $448K | $501K | $205K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011200) | $343K | $371K | $197K | |
| Thurston South | $424K | $443K | $194K | |
| Olympia (Tract 011300) | $315K | $345K | $165K | |
| Olympia (Tract 010510) | $94K | $101K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.