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Anchorage, AK · ZIP 99508 · Census Tract 02020000801 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$287K
Downside (P10)
$250K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$327K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$455K
+58% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +58%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $245K | $230K | $251K | $220K | $217K | $198K | $197K | $231K | $258K | $283K | $287K | $301K | $307K | $327K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$42,762 | -$57,062 | -$36,162 | -$67,362 | -$70,462 | -$89,762 | -$90,362 | -$56,262 | -$29,662 | -$4,862 | +$13,803 | +$19,821 | +$39,196 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -14.9% | -19.9% | -12.6% | -23.4% | -24.5% | -31.2% | -31.4% | -19.6% | -10.3% | -1.7% | +4.8% | +6.9% | +13.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $264K | $266K | $250K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $373K | $396K | $455K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$264K to $373K
36.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$250K to $455K
62.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $286K | $327K | +14.1% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000701) | $277K | $311K | +12.0% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001731) | $291K | $319K | +9.7% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000702) | $290K | $305K | +5.3% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001900) | $285K | $295K | +3.7% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000703) | $282K | $291K | +3.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $286K | $327K | +14.1% | |
| Eagle River | $252K | $353K | +39.6% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000200) | $251K | $316K | +26.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002714) | $442K | $536K | +21.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002713) | $446K | $518K | +16.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002304) | $383K | $444K | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $286K | $327K | $205K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000701) | $277K | $311K | $151K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002100) | $317K | $349K | $142K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001802) | $185K | $212K | $109K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000802) | $144K | $154K | $104K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000901) | $105K | $115K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Anchorage, AK · ZIP 99508 · Census Tract 02020000801 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$287K
Downside (P10)
$250K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$327K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$455K
+58% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +58%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $245K | $230K | $251K | $220K | $217K | $198K | $197K | $231K | $258K | $283K | $287K | $301K | $307K | $327K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$42,762 | -$57,062 | -$36,162 | -$67,362 | -$70,462 | -$89,762 | -$90,362 | -$56,262 | -$29,662 | -$4,862 | +$13,803 | +$19,821 | +$39,196 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -14.9% | -19.9% | -12.6% | -23.4% | -24.5% | -31.2% | -31.4% | -19.6% | -10.3% | -1.7% | +4.8% | +6.9% | +13.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $264K | $266K | $250K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $373K | $396K | $455K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$264K to $373K
36.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$250K to $455K
62.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $286K | $327K | +14.1% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000701) | $277K | $311K | +12.0% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001731) | $291K | $319K | +9.7% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000702) | $290K | $305K | +5.3% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001900) | $285K | $295K | +3.7% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000703) | $282K | $291K | +3.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $286K | $327K | +14.1% | |
| Eagle River | $252K | $353K | +39.6% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000200) | $251K | $316K | +26.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002714) | $442K | $536K | +21.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002713) | $446K | $518K | +16.2% | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002304) | $383K | $444K | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage | $286K | $327K | $205K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000701) | $277K | $311K | $151K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 002100) | $317K | $349K | $142K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 001802) | $185K | $212K | $109K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000802) | $144K | $154K | $104K | |
| Anchorage (Tract 000901) | $105K | $115K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
