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Santa Cruz, AZ · ZIP 85648 · Census Tract 04023966107 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$310K
Downside (P10)
$275K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$332K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$424K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $173K | $220K | $231K | $272K | $297K | $310K | $321K | $325K | $332K | $311K |
| YoY Change | +26.8% | +4.8% | +18.0% | +9.2% | +4.4% | +3.7% | +1.2% | +2.1% | -6.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $266K | $276K | $275K | $277K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $375K | $408K | $424K | $352K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$266K to $375K
33.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$277K to $352K
24.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Rico | $305K | $332K | +8.8% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966301) | $248K | $281K | +13.6% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966200) | $293K | $321K | +9.3% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966101) | $328K | $354K | +8.0% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966106) | $229K | $243K | +5.7% | |
| Rio Rico | $235K | $247K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Rico | $305K | $332K | +8.8% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966301) | $248K | $281K | +13.6% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966401) | $165K | $182K | +10.2% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966110) | $202K | $222K | +10.0% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966103) | $168K | $184K | +9.4% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966200) | $293K | $321K | +9.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Rico | $305K | $332K | $149K | |
| Rio Rico | $235K | $247K | $119K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966103) | $168K | $184K | $112K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966302) | $168K | $178K | $98K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966401) | $165K | $182K | $94K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966402) | $132K | $139K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.