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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Santa Cruz, AZ · ZIP 85621 · Census Tract 04023966401 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$168K
Downside (P10)
$146K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$182K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$240K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $97K | $91K | $95K | $100K | $101K | $93K | $118K | $121K | $122K | $164K | $168K | $167K | $177K | $182K | $170K |
| YoY Change | -6.4% | +5.0% | +4.7% | +1.2% | -7.6% | +25.9% | +2.7% | +0.6% | +34.9% | +2.6% | -0.4% | +5.6% | +2.7% | -6.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $145K | $148K | $146K | $149K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $190K | $223K | $240K | $193K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$145K to $190K
26.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$149K to $193K
25.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nogales | $165K | $182K | +10.2% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966110) | $202K | $222K | +10.0% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966103) | $168K | $184K | +9.4% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966302) | $168K | $178K | +5.9% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966402) | $132K | $139K | +5.0% | |
| Rio Rico | $222K | $232K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nogales | $165K | $182K | +10.2% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966301) | $248K | $281K | +13.6% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966110) | $202K | $222K | +10.0% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966103) | $168K | $184K | +9.4% | |
| Nogales (Tract 966200) | $293K | $321K | +9.3% | |
| Rio Rico | $305K | $332K | +8.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nogales | $165K | $182K | $94K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966110) | $202K | $222K | $130K | |
| Rio Rico | $235K | $247K | $119K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966103) | $168K | $184K | $112K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966302) | $168K | $178K | $98K | |
| Nogales (Tract 966402) | $132K | $139K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.