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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
El Dorado, CA · ZIP 96150 · Census Tract 06017030302 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$761K
Downside (P10)
$649K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$816K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.11M
+46% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $368K | $376K | $412K | $420K | $421K | $412K | $537K | $718K | $742K | $734K | $761K | $794K | $807K | $816K | $762K |
| YoY Change | +2.4% | +9.5% | +1.9% | +0.1% | -2.0% | +30.3% | +33.7% | +3.4% | -1.1% | +3.7% | +4.2% | +1.7% | +1.1% | -6.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $628K | $661K | $649K | $675K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $932K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $852K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$628K to $932K
38.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$675K to $852K
23.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lake Tahoe | $754K | $816K | +8.3% | |
| South Lake Tahoe (Tract 030506) | $737K | $838K | +13.7% | |
| South Lake Tahoe (Tract 030201) | $754K | $845K | +12.1% | |
| North El Dorado | $753K | $819K | +8.8% | |
| South El Dorado | $730K | $780K | +6.9% | |
| South Lake Tahoe (Tract 030502) | $727K | $775K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lake Tahoe | $754K | $816K | +8.3% | |
| South Lake Tahoe | $973K | $1.15M | +17.9% | |
| North El Dorado | $457K | $532K | +16.5% | |
| South El Dorado | $548K | $632K | +15.4% | |
| El Dorado Hills | $819K | $936K | +14.3% | |
| Cameron Park | $663K | $754K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lake Tahoe | $754K | $816K | $466K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031505) | $449K | $482K | $238K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 030605) | $457K | $532K | $217K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031407) | $486K | $519K | $215K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031409) | $451K | $496K | $198K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 031302) | $390K | $404K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.