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El Dorado, CA · ZIP 95682 · Census Tract 06017030808 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$706K
Downside (P10)
$580K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$757K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.01M
+43% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $360K | $371K | $413K | $445K | $457K | $508K | $546K | $612K | $661K | $711K | $706K | $723K | $743K | $757K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$345,905 | -$335,105 | -$293,405 | -$261,105 | -$249,705 | -$198,005 | -$160,405 | -$93,905 | -$45,005 | +$4,495 | +$16,322 | +$36,732 | +$51,278 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.0% | -47.5% | -41.5% | -37.0% | -35.4% | -28.0% | -22.7% | -13.3% | -6.4% | +0.6% | +2.3% | +5.2% | +7.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $598K | $576K | $580K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $910K | $960K | $1.0M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$598K to $910K
43.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$580K to $1.0M
56.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $712K | $757K | +6.4% | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 030807) | $696K | $790K | +13.4% | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 030812) | $730K | $780K | +6.9% | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031503) | $683K | $729K | +6.7% | |
| South Lake Tahoe | $727K | $775K | +6.6% | |
| North El Dorado | $718K | $735K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $712K | $757K | +6.4% | |
| South Lake Tahoe | $973K | $1.15M | +17.9% | |
| North El Dorado | $457K | $532K | +16.5% | |
| South El Dorado | $548K | $632K | +15.4% | |
| El Dorado Hills | $819K | $936K | +14.3% | |
| Cameron Park | $663K | $754K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $712K | $757K | $431K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031505) | $449K | $482K | $238K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 030605) | $457K | $532K | $217K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031407) | $486K | $519K | $215K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031409) | $451K | $496K | $198K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 031302) | $390K | $404K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
El Dorado, CA · ZIP 95682 · Census Tract 06017030808 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$706K
Downside (P10)
$580K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$757K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.01M
+43% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $360K | $371K | $413K | $445K | $457K | $508K | $546K | $612K | $661K | $711K | $706K | $723K | $743K | $757K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$345,905 | -$335,105 | -$293,405 | -$261,105 | -$249,705 | -$198,005 | -$160,405 | -$93,905 | -$45,005 | +$4,495 | +$16,322 | +$36,732 | +$51,278 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.0% | -47.5% | -41.5% | -37.0% | -35.4% | -28.0% | -22.7% | -13.3% | -6.4% | +0.6% | +2.3% | +5.2% | +7.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $598K | $576K | $580K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $910K | $960K | $1.0M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$598K to $910K
43.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$580K to $1.0M
56.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $712K | $757K | +6.4% | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 030807) | $696K | $790K | +13.4% | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 030812) | $730K | $780K | +6.9% | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031503) | $683K | $729K | +6.7% | |
| South Lake Tahoe | $727K | $775K | +6.6% | |
| North El Dorado | $718K | $735K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $712K | $757K | +6.4% | |
| South Lake Tahoe | $973K | $1.15M | +17.9% | |
| North El Dorado | $457K | $532K | +16.5% | |
| South El Dorado | $548K | $632K | +15.4% | |
| El Dorado Hills | $819K | $936K | +14.3% | |
| Cameron Park | $663K | $754K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $712K | $757K | $431K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031505) | $449K | $482K | $238K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 030605) | $457K | $532K | $217K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031407) | $486K | $519K | $215K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031409) | $451K | $496K | $198K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 031302) | $390K | $404K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
