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El Dorado, CA · ZIP 95726 · Census Tract 06017031405 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$577K
Downside (P10)
$482K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$602K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$944K
+64% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +64%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $297K | $303K | $302K | $319K | $341K | $363K | $393K | $473K | $487K | $547K | $577K | $579K | $591K | $602K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$280,029 | -$273,629 | -$274,629 | -$257,629 | -$235,429 | -$213,629 | -$183,829 | -$103,629 | -$89,829 | -$29,529 | +$2,227 | +$13,797 | +$25,620 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.5% | -47.4% | -47.6% | -44.7% | -40.8% | -37.0% | -31.9% | -18.0% | -15.6% | -5.1% | +0.4% | +2.4% | +4.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $502K | $480K | $482K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $733K | $785K | $944K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$502K to $733K
40.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$482K to $944K
76.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $566K | $602K | +6.5% | |
| South El Dorado | $598K | $659K | +10.2% | |
| Cameron Park (Tract 030810) | $590K | $631K | +7.0% | |
| Cameron Park (Tract 030811) | $557K | $591K | +6.0% | |
| North El Dorado | $585K | $615K | +5.1% | |
| Placerville | $559K | $578K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $566K | $602K | +6.5% | |
| South Lake Tahoe | $973K | $1.15M | +17.9% | |
| North El Dorado | $457K | $532K | +16.5% | |
| South El Dorado | $548K | $632K | +15.4% | |
| El Dorado Hills | $819K | $936K | +14.3% | |
| Cameron Park | $663K | $754K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $566K | $602K | $461K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031505) | $449K | $482K | $238K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 030605) | $457K | $532K | $217K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031407) | $486K | $519K | $215K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031409) | $451K | $496K | $198K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 031302) | $390K | $404K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
El Dorado, CA · ZIP 95726 · Census Tract 06017031405 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$577K
Downside (P10)
$482K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$602K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$944K
+64% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +64%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $297K | $303K | $302K | $319K | $341K | $363K | $393K | $473K | $487K | $547K | $577K | $579K | $591K | $602K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$280,029 | -$273,629 | -$274,629 | -$257,629 | -$235,429 | -$213,629 | -$183,829 | -$103,629 | -$89,829 | -$29,529 | +$2,227 | +$13,797 | +$25,620 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.5% | -47.4% | -47.6% | -44.7% | -40.8% | -37.0% | -31.9% | -18.0% | -15.6% | -5.1% | +0.4% | +2.4% | +4.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $502K | $480K | $482K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $733K | $785K | $944K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$502K to $733K
40.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$482K to $944K
76.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $566K | $602K | +6.5% | |
| South El Dorado | $598K | $659K | +10.2% | |
| Cameron Park (Tract 030810) | $590K | $631K | +7.0% | |
| Cameron Park (Tract 030811) | $557K | $591K | +6.0% | |
| North El Dorado | $585K | $615K | +5.1% | |
| Placerville | $559K | $578K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $566K | $602K | +6.5% | |
| South Lake Tahoe | $973K | $1.15M | +17.9% | |
| North El Dorado | $457K | $532K | +16.5% | |
| South El Dorado | $548K | $632K | +15.4% | |
| El Dorado Hills | $819K | $936K | +14.3% | |
| Cameron Park | $663K | $754K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South El Dorado | $566K | $602K | $461K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031505) | $449K | $482K | $238K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 030605) | $457K | $532K | $217K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031407) | $486K | $519K | $215K | |
| South El Dorado (Tract 031409) | $451K | $496K | $198K | |
| North El Dorado (Tract 031302) | $390K | $404K | $167K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
