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Kern, CA · ZIP 93252 · Census Tract 06029003303 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$159K
Downside (P10)
$134K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$162K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$192K
+21% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +21%. The model forecasts this with 81% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $63K | $65K | $70K | $82K | $100K | $81K | $119K | $158K | $151K | $157K | $159K | $161K | $163K | $162K |
| YoY Change | +3.3% | +8.2% | +17.1% | +22.0% | -19.8% | +47.6% | +32.7% | -4.4% | +4.4% | +0.7% | +1.7% | +0.8% | -0.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $135K | $132K | $134K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $176K | $192K | $192K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$135K to $176K
25.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$134K to $192K
35.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Kern | $160K | $162K | +1.1% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002305) | $163K | $192K | +17.5% | |
| Hillcrest | $159K | $178K | +12.0% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002001) | $164K | $183K | +11.7% | |
| East Kern | $150K | $164K | +9.0% | |
| Weedpatch | $147K | $151K | +2.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Kern | $160K | $162K | +1.1% | |
| Delano | $282K | $342K | +21.5% | |
| East Kern | $214K | $255K | +19.3% | |
| Rosamond | $303K | $361K | +19.2% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002815) | $329K | $392K | +19.2% | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 002817) | $301K | $356K | +18.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Kern | $160K | $162K | $57K | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 000400) | $137K | $146K | $68K | |
| Oildale | $128K | $134K | $61K | |
| Lake Isabella | $91K | $104K | $60K | |
| East Kern | $78K | $84K | $55K | |
| Bakersfield (Tract 000601) | $80K | $88K | $42K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.