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Madera, CA · ZIP 93614 · Census Tract 06039000106 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$390K
Downside (P10)
$342K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$411K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$524K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $225K | $232K | $247K | $269K | $282K | $286K | $313K | $351K | $354K | $374K | $390K | $403K | $408K | $411K |
| YoY Change | +3.1% | +6.5% | +8.9% | +4.6% | +1.5% | +9.6% | +11.9% | +0.9% | +5.7% | +4.3% | +3.3% | +1.3% | +0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $347K | $347K | $342K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $464K | $486K | $524K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$347K to $464K
29.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$342K to $524K
44.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yosemite Lakes · Coarsegold · (Tract 1.6) | $382K | $411K | +7.7% | |
| Madera (Tract 000902) | $392K | $444K | +13.4% | |
| Madera (Tract 000514) | $377K | $417K | +10.8% | |
| Yosemite Lakes | $391K | $428K | +9.3% | |
| Madera (Tract 000512) | $402K | $438K | +8.7% | |
| Madera (Tract 000515) | $391K | $416K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yosemite Lakes · Coarsegold · (Tract 1.6) | $382K | $411K | +7.7% | |
| Madera (Tract 000901) | $273K | $324K | +18.6% | |
| Madera West | $567K | $660K | +16.3% | |
| Oakhurst | $413K | $476K | +15.2% | |
| Oakhurst-North Fork | $424K | $488K | +15.1% | |
| Madera (Tract 000701) | $409K | $470K | +15.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yosemite Lakes · Coarsegold · (Tract 1.6) | $382K | $411K | $182K | |
| Madera (Tract 000604) | $277K | $313K | $175K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000301) | $284K | $317K | $173K | |
| Madera (Tract 000802) | $259K | $292K | $144K | |
| Chowchilla (Tract 000201) | $273K | $293K | $143K | |
| Madera (Tract 000602) | $193K | $212K | $131K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.