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Marin, CA · ZIP 94937 · Census Tract 06041132200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.83M
Downside (P10)
$1.53M
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.98M
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.48M
+35% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $802K | $859K | $949K | $957K | $975K | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $2.0M |
| YoY Change | +7.1% | +10.5% | +0.8% | +1.9% | +22.2% | -3.9% | +24.8% | +11.0% | +13.0% | +2.3% | +1.3% | +3.4% | +3.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.1M | $2.3M | $2.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$1.53M to $2.13M
32.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.53M to $2.48M
47.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Marin | $1.83M | $1.98M | +8.1% | |
| Tamalpais-Homestead Valley (Tract 128100) | $1.83M | $1.95M | +6.9% | |
| San Rafael | $1.85M | $1.98M | +6.7% | |
| Bolinas area | $1.77M | $1.86M | +5.0% | |
| Tamalpais-Homestead Valley (Tract 128200) | $1.90M | $1.99M | +4.3% | |
| Corte Madera | $1.76M | $1.83M | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Marin | $1.83M | $1.98M | +8.1% | |
| Novato (Tract 101100) | $1.57M | $1.96M | +25.0% | |
| Sausalito | $758K | $919K | +21.2% | |
| San Rafael | $1.38M | $1.66M | +20.6% | |
| Novato (Tract 104103) | $1.10M | $1.31M | +18.7% | |
| Novato (Tract 102100) | $1.09M | $1.28M | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Marin | $1.83M | $1.98M | $946K | |
| San Rafael (Tract 112203) | $601K | $646K | $427K | |
| Sausalito | $758K | $919K | $397K | |
| San Rafael (Tract 106001) | $625K | $668K | $370K | |
| Novato (Tract 104102) | $711K | $721K | $359K | |
| Novato (Tract 105001) | $473K | $528K | $253K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.