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Marin, CA · ZIP 94952 · Census Tract 06041133000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.65M
Downside (P10)
$1.38M
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.74M
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.39M
+45% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.7M |
| YoY Change | +5.8% | +1.6% | -0.5% | +5.1% | +2.7% | +4.8% | +17.1% | +10.3% | -0.6% | +2.9% | +1.7% | -0.4% | +4.0% | -4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.1M | $2.2M | $2.4M | $1.9M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$1.41M to $2.09M
40.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.47M to $1.86M
23.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Marin | $1.62M | $1.74M | +7.0% | |
| Ross Valley (Tract 115000) | $1.70M | $1.95M | +14.7% | |
| San Anselmo (Tract 117000) | $1.60M | $1.84M | +14.6% | |
| San Anselmo (Tract 116000) | $1.66M | $1.83M | +10.2% | |
| San Rafael | $1.58M | $1.72M | +9.0% | |
| Ross Valley (Tract 121200) | $1.65M | $1.63M | -1.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Marin | $1.62M | $1.74M | +7.0% | |
| Novato (Tract 101100) | $1.57M | $1.96M | +25.0% | |
| Sausalito | $758K | $919K | +21.2% | |
| San Rafael | $1.38M | $1.66M | +20.6% | |
| Novato (Tract 104103) | $1.10M | $1.31M | +18.7% | |
| Novato (Tract 102100) | $1.09M | $1.28M | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Marin | $1.62M | $1.74M | $1.01M | |
| San Rafael (Tract 112203) | $601K | $646K | $427K | |
| Sausalito | $758K | $919K | $397K | |
| San Rafael (Tract 106001) | $625K | $668K | $370K | |
| Novato (Tract 104102) | $711K | $721K | $359K | |
| Novato (Tract 105001) | $473K | $528K | $253K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.