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Merced, CA · ZIP 95301 · Census Tract 06047000602 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$353K
Downside (P10)
$296K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$378K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$459K
+30% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +30%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $148K | $158K | $173K | $194K | $207K | $228K | $235K | $269K | $302K | $343K | $353K | $359K | $372K | $378K | $359K |
| YoY Change | +6.7% | +10.0% | +12.1% | +6.4% | +10.3% | +3.0% | +14.4% | +12.6% | +13.5% | +2.9% | +1.8% | +3.7% | +1.4% | -5.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $312K | $311K | $296K | $316K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $409K | $440K | $459K | $409K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$312K to $409K
27.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$316K to $409K
25.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atwater · 95301 · (Tract 6.2) | $347K | $378K | +8.9% | |
| Atwater (Tract 000505) | $361K | $417K | +15.5% | |
| Atwater (Tract 000603) | $353K | $399K | +13.1% | |
| Delhi | $351K | $388K | +10.6% | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $348K | $380K | +9.1% | |
| Merced | $359K | $384K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atwater · 95301 · (Tract 6.2) | $347K | $378K | +8.9% | |
| Gustine | $436K | $522K | +19.8% | |
| Merced (Tract 001006) | $418K | $495K | +18.3% | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $443K | $523K | +18.0% | |
| Los Banos | $540K | $637K | +17.9% | |
| Merced (Tract 001700) | $321K | $371K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atwater · 95301 · (Tract 6.2) | $347K | $378K | $162K | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $315K | $337K | $161K | |
| Dos Palos | $296K | $301K | $154K | |
| Merced (Tract 001503) | $214K | $230K | $151K | |
| Planada-Le Grand | $291K | $312K | $142K | |
| Merced (Tract 000903) | $242K | $270K | $110K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.