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Merced, CA · ZIP 93635 · Census Tract 06047002204 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$445K
Downside (P10)
$414K
-7% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$492K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$654K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -7% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $298K | $322K | $387K | $424K | $428K | $445K | $459K | $481K | $492K |
| YoY Change | +8.4% | +20.0% | +9.6% | +0.8% | +4.1% | +3.1% | +4.8% | +2.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $386K | $401K | $414K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $558K | $607K | $654K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$386K to $558K
37.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$414K to $654K
48.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Banos | $431K | $492K | +14.2% | |
| Livingston-Delhi (Tract 000303) | $443K | $523K | +18.0% | |
| Merced | $448K | $487K | +8.8% | |
| Livingston-Delhi (Tract 000301) | $444K | $470K | +5.9% | |
| Los Banos (Tract 002303) | $447K | $469K | +5.0% | |
| Los Banos (Tract 002203) | $448K | $468K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Banos | $431K | $492K | +14.2% | |
| Gustine | $436K | $522K | +19.8% | |
| Merced (Tract 001006) | $418K | $495K | +18.3% | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $443K | $523K | +18.0% | |
| Los Banos | $540K | $637K | +17.9% | |
| Merced (Tract 001700) | $321K | $371K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Banos | $431K | $492K | $241K | |
| Livingston-Delhi | $315K | $337K | $161K | |
| Dos Palos | $296K | $301K | $154K | |
| Merced (Tract 001503) | $214K | $230K | $151K | |
| Planada-Le Grand | $291K | $312K | $142K | |
| Merced (Tract 000903) | $242K | $270K | $110K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.