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Orange County, CA · ZIP 92651 · Census Tract 06059042305 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$2.08M
Downside (P10)
$1.77M
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.24M
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.07M
+47% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.8M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.2M | $2.1M |
| YoY Change | +5.3% | +31.0% | +11.2% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +4.2% | +2.1% | -0.2% | +5.4% | -6.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.8M | $1.7M | $1.8M | $1.9M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.6M | $2.8M | $3.1M | $2.3M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$1.78M to $2.61M
38.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.86M to $2.30M
21.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Coast · Laguna Beach · (Tract 423.5) | $2.03M | $2.24M | +10.0% | |
| Laguna Hills | $2.08M | $2.42M | +16.1% | |
| Newport Beach (Tract 062642) | $2.09M | $2.35M | +12.1% | |
| Villa Park | $2.06M | $2.25M | +9.2% | |
| Newport Beach (Tract 062800) | $2.08M | $2.24M | +7.8% | |
| Newport Beach (Tract 063008) | $2.06M | $2.21M | +7.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Coast · Laguna Beach · (Tract 423.5) | $2.03M | $2.24M | +10.0% | |
| Santa Ana (Tract 075003) | $676K | $849K | +25.6% | |
| Santa Ana (Tract 074200) | $720K | $886K | +23.1% | |
| Anaheim | $660K | $803K | +21.7% | |
| Seal Beach | $1.43M | $1.74M | +21.3% | |
| Santa Ana (Tract 075202) | $724K | $878K | +21.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Coast · Laguna Beach · (Tract 423.5) | $2.03M | $2.24M | $1.30M | |
| Seal Beach | $316K | $337K | $122K | |
| Santa Ana (Tract 074802) | $184K | $205K | $108K | |
| Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove | $115K | $128K | $84K | |
| Santa Ana (Tract 074403) | $144K | $168K | $81K | |
| Santa Ana (Tract 099248) | $122K | $136K | $73K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.