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Sacramento, CA · ZIP 95823 · Census Tract 06067009634 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$394K
Downside (P10)
$335K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$425K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$608K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $123K | $161K | $175K | $221K | $254K | $265K | $278K | $349K | $357K | $386K | $394K | $411K | $425K | $425K | $404K |
| YoY Change | +30.5% | +8.8% | +26.0% | +15.2% | +4.2% | +5.1% | +25.6% | +2.1% | +8.2% | +2.1% | +4.3% | +3.5% | -0.1% | -4.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $326K | $324K | $335K | $362K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $499K | $570K | $608K | $456K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$326K to $499K
42.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$362K to $456K
23.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento · 95823 · (Tract 96.34) | $394K | $425K | +7.9% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 003800) | $395K | $461K | +16.6% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 004302) | $397K | $454K | +14.3% | |
| Citrus Heights (Tract 008113) | $391K | $436K | +11.5% | |
| Citrus Heights (Tract 008132) | $394K | $436K | +10.8% | |
| Rancho Cordova | $394K | $430K | +9.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento · 95823 · (Tract 96.34) | $394K | $425K | +7.9% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 007026) | $591K | $720K | +21.8% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 007027) | $390K | $471K | +21.0% | |
| Sacramento (Tract 005502) | $382K | $459K | +20.0% | |
| Arden-Arcade | $461K | $553K | +19.9% | |
| Foothill Farms | $431K | $516K | +19.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento · 95823 · (Tract 96.34) | $394K | $425K | $273K | |
| Arden-Arcade | $224K | $242K | $94K | |
| Foothill Farms | $250K | $252K | $87K | |
| Rancho Cordova | $167K | $173K | $84K | |
| Sacramento (Tract 005205) | $142K | $164K | $78K | |
| Sacramento (Tract 004502) | $119K | $133K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.