What is the home price forecast for Garden Acres?

Homecastr forecasts Garden Acres median home values at $350,321 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 7.7%.

How confident is the Garden Acres forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $271,027 (downside) to $500,705 (upside), with a spread of 61% of median.

Garden Acres Home Price Forecast

San Joaquin, CA · ZIP 95215 · Census Tract 06077002701 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$350K

Downside (P10)

$271K

-23% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$377K

+8% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$501K

+43% by 2030

Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +43%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar San Joaquin markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$97K	$97K	$113K	$138K	$155K	$169K	$211K	$272K	$323K	$342K	$350K	$357K	$372K	$377K	$357K
YoY Change		-0.9%	+17.2%	+21.6%	+12.5%	+8.9%	+25.0%	+29.1%	+18.9%	+5.8%	+2.4%	+1.8%	+4.4%	+1.3%	-5.4%
Downside (P10)												$290K	$294K	$271K	$318K
Upside (P90)												$450K	$481K	$501K	$402K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.

1-Year Spread

$290K to $450K

44.9% of median

5-Year Spread

$318K to $402K

23.7% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: roughly flat5yr expected: +1.8% · Spread: 24%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Garden Acres	$346K	$377K	+9.2%
Stockton	$349K	$378K	+8.3%
Stockton	$348K	$366K	+5.2%
Stockton	$352K	$396K	+12.3%
Lodi	$347K	$372K	+7.3%
Stockton	$358K	$391K	+9.1%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Garden Acres	$346K	$377K	+9.2%
Mountain House	$972K	$1.20M	+23.5%
Lodi	$611K	$726K	+18.8%
Manteca	$578K	$680K	+17.7%
Lodi	$463K	$543K	+17.2%
Escalon	$491K	$574K	+16.9%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Garden Acres	$346K	$377K	$230K
Stockton	$135K	$149K	$61K
Manteca	$170K	$190K	$100K
Stockton	$280K	$297K	$124K
Stockton	$361K	$377K	$143K
Tracy	$176K	$191K	$147K

Location

Garden Acres on map

Open Full Map ↗

Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).