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San Luis Obispo, CA · ZIP 93454 · Census Tract 06079012302 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.22M
Downside (P10)
$951K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.28M
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.67M
+37% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $757K | $780K | $788K | $867K | $874K | $895K | $952K | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
| YoY Change | +3.1% | +1.1% | +10.0% | +0.7% | +2.4% | +6.4% | +21.8% | -3.7% | +7.5% | +1.6% | +2.9% | +2.3% | -0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.0M | $1.0M | $951K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$1.03M to $1.50M
37.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$951K to $1.67M
56.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arroyo Grande | $1.22M | $1.28M | +4.9% | |
| Arroyo Grande (Tract 012306) | $1.11M | $1.30M | +17.6% | |
| San Luis Obispo (Tract 010902) | $1.14M | $1.32M | +15.8% | |
| San Luis Obispo (Tract 011101) | $1.18M | $1.34M | +13.9% | |
| San Luis Obispo (Tract 011002) | $1.13M | $1.24M | +9.2% | |
| Arroyo Grande (Tract 011706) | $1.11M | $1.20M | +8.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arroyo Grande | $1.22M | $1.28M | +4.9% | |
| Arroyo Grande | $1.11M | $1.30M | +17.6% | |
| Paso Robles | $541K | $629K | +16.3% | |
| San Luis Obispo (Tract 011501) | $298K | $346K | +15.9% | |
| San Luis Obispo (Tract 010902) | $1.14M | $1.32M | +15.8% | |
| El Paso de Robles (Paso Robles) | $608K | $696K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arroyo Grande | $1.22M | $1.28M | $723K | |
| El Paso de Robles (Paso Robles) | $608K | $696K | $359K | |
| Atascadero | $586K | $663K | $331K | |
| Oceano | $534K | $589K | $310K | |
| Nipomo | $636K | $703K | $290K | |
| San Luis Obispo | $298K | $346K | $184K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.