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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Santa Barbara, CA · ZIP 93110 · Census Tract 06083000101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$681K
Downside (P10)
$534K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$707K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.01M
+48% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $339K | $359K | $399K | $424K | $457K | $454K | $471K | $486K | $558K | $663K | $681K | $691K | $703K | $707K |
| YoY Change | +6.0% | +11.0% | +6.4% | +7.8% | -0.7% | +3.7% | +3.2% | +14.7% | +19.0% | +2.6% | +1.5% | +1.8% | +0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $609K | $589K | $534K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $820K | $890K | $1.0M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$609K to $820K
30.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$534K to $1.01M
67.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Goleta Valley | $674K | $707K | +4.9% | |
| Orcutt (Tract 002010) | $663K | $743K | +12.0% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 001001) | $684K | $756K | +10.5% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 003001) | $690K | $760K | +10.1% | |
| Orcutt (Tract 002012) | $697K | $756K | +8.4% | |
| Orcutt (Tract 002009) | $655K | $700K | +6.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Goleta Valley | $674K | $707K | +4.9% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 001206) | $1.10M | $1.33M | +21.3% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002409) | $613K | $738K | +20.3% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002303) | $457K | $537K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 001102) | $1.17M | $1.36M | +16.0% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002005) | $536K | $618K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Goleta Valley | $674K | $707K | $474K | |
| Guadalupe | $474K | $535K | $225K | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002015) | $427K | $475K | $217K | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002206) | $475K | $518K | $205K | |
| Lompoc | $325K | $372K | $181K | |
| Cuyama | $263K | $285K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.