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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Santa Barbara, CA · ZIP 93454 · Census Tract 06083002006 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$880K
Downside (P10)
$744K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$893K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.13M
+28% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $652K | $666K | $669K | $684K | $712K | $730K | $773K | $798K | $797K | $863K | $880K | $909K | $912K | $893K | $895K |
| YoY Change | +2.2% | +0.4% | +2.2% | +4.1% | +2.6% | +5.9% | +3.2% | -0.1% | +8.2% | +2.0% | +3.3% | +0.3% | -2.1% | +0.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $786K | $774K | $744K | $779K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.0M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$786K to $1.01M
25.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$779K to $1.01M
25.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Maria | $875K | $893K | +2.1% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 000805) | $934K | $1.02M | +9.1% | |
| Goleta | $900K | $973K | +8.1% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 002937) | $950K | $1.02M | +7.7% | |
| Solvang-Santa Ynez (Tract 001911) | $903K | $965K | +6.9% | |
| Solvang-Santa Ynez (Tract 001912) | $864K | $898K | +3.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Maria | $875K | $893K | +2.1% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 001206) | $1.10M | $1.33M | +21.3% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002409) | $613K | $738K | +20.3% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002303) | $457K | $537K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 001102) | $1.17M | $1.36M | +16.0% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002005) | $536K | $618K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Maria | $875K | $893K | $382K | |
| Guadalupe | $474K | $535K | $225K | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002015) | $427K | $475K | $217K | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002206) | $475K | $518K | $205K | |
| Lompoc | $325K | $372K | $181K | |
| Cuyama | $263K | $285K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.