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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Santa Barbara, CA · ZIP 93436 · Census Tract 06083002806 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$516K
Downside (P10)
$446K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$558K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$678K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 77% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $212K | $239K | $265K | $297K | $315K | $326K | $347K | $423K | $441K | $493K | $516K | $503K | $545K | $558K |
| YoY Change | +12.6% | +10.9% | +12.1% | +6.2% | +3.7% | +6.4% | +21.8% | +4.3% | +11.8% | +4.6% | -2.4% | +8.4% | +2.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $439K | $438K | $446K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $596K | $672K | $678K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$439K to $596K
31.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$446K to $678K
41.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lompoc | $500K | $558K | +11.7% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002005) | $536K | $618K | +15.4% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002410) | $543K | $621K | +14.3% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002408) | $519K | $577K | +11.2% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002310) | $488K | $522K | +7.0% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002011) | $509K | $542K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lompoc | $500K | $558K | +11.7% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 001206) | $1.10M | $1.33M | +21.3% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002409) | $613K | $738K | +20.3% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002303) | $457K | $537K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Barbara (Tract 001102) | $1.17M | $1.36M | +16.0% | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002005) | $536K | $618K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lompoc | $500K | $558K | $233K | |
| Guadalupe | $474K | $535K | $225K | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002015) | $427K | $475K | $217K | |
| Santa Maria (Tract 002206) | $475K | $518K | $205K | |
| Lompoc | $325K | $372K | $181K | |
| Cuyama | $263K | $285K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.