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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Santa Cruz, CA · ZIP 95076 · Census Tract 06087110202 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$758K
Downside (P10)
$620K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$816K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.19M
+57% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $629K | $636K | $693K | $708K | $731K | $758K | $769K | $783K | $816K |
| YoY Change | +1.2% | +8.9% | +2.3% | +3.2% | +3.8% | +1.4% | +1.7% | +4.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $655K | $662K | $620K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $950K | $1.0M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$655K to $950K
38.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$620K to $1.19M
70.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watsonville | $743K | $816K | +9.8% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 122005) | $750K | $919K | +22.5% | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110201) | $793K | $883K | +11.3% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 100700) | $750K | $831K | +10.8% | |
| Capitola | $743K | $808K | +8.7% | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110700) | $778K | $805K | +3.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watsonville | $743K | $816K | +9.8% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 122005) | $750K | $919K | +22.5% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 100400) | $931K | $1.10M | +17.6% | |
| Twin Lakes | $1.21M | $1.42M | +17.2% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121801) | $1.61M | $1.88M | +16.4% | |
| Santa Cruz (Tract 121602) | $701K | $811K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watsonville | $743K | $816K | $572K | |
| Santa Cruz | $701K | $811K | $377K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110102) | $636K | $712K | $321K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110601) | $564K | $641K | $316K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110505) | $456K | $490K | $250K | |
| Watsonville (Tract 110504) | $456K | $508K | $226K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.