Sonoma, CA · ZIP 95409 · Census Tract 06097151602 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$882K
Downside (P10)
$742K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$907K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.15M
+30% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +30%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Sonoma markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $570K | $609K | $638K | $673K | $692K | $747K | $781K | $858K | $905K | $896K | $882K | $898K | $917K | $907K |
| YoY Change | +6.8% | +4.7% | +5.6% | +2.9% | +7.8% | +4.7% | +9.8% | +5.5% | -1.0% | -1.5% | +1.8% | +2.1% | -1.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $722K | $725K | $742K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$722K to $1.04M
35.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$742K to $1.15M
44.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95409 · (Tract 1516.2) | $897K | $907K | +1.2% | |
| Sebastopol | $883K | $985K | +11.6% | |
| Windsor | $890K | $961K | +8.0% | |
| Petaluma | $894K | $1.01M | +13.4% | |
| Healdsburg | $861K | $912K | +5.9% | |
| Sonoma | $859K | $910K | +6.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95409 · (Tract 1516.2) | $897K | $907K | +1.2% | |
| Sonoma | $917K | $1.10M | +19.8% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Petaluma | $601K | $712K | +18.4% | |
| Santa Rosa | $769K | $903K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Rosa | $995K | $1.17M | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95409 · (Tract 1516.2) | $897K | $907K | $407K | |
| Santa Rosa | $214K | $243K | $142K | |
| Santa Rosa | $438K | $478K | $221K | |
| Santa Rosa | $535K | $556K | $243K | |
| Santa Rosa | $461K | $497K | $269K | |
| Santa Rosa | $527K | $576K | $272K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.