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Stanislaus, CA · ZIP 95307 · Census Tract 06099002602 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$373K
Downside (P10)
$309K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$389K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$529K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $151K | $159K | $164K | $188K | $213K | $233K | $267K | $314K | $338K | $360K | $373K | $375K | $383K | $389K |
| YoY Change | +5.4% | +2.8% | +14.5% | +13.7% | +9.1% | +14.6% | +17.6% | +7.9% | +6.4% | +3.6% | +0.6% | +2.1% | +1.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $332K | $302K | $309K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $444K | $497K | $529K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$332K to $444K
29.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$309K to $529K
56.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceres · 95307 · (Tract 26.2) | $368K | $389K | +5.7% | |
| Turlock (Tract 003909) | $376K | $440K | +17.0% | |
| Turlock (Tract 003803) | $367K | $417K | +13.6% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002803) | $376K | $414K | +10.0% | |
| Modesto (Tract 001800) | $366K | $401K | +9.6% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002004) | $366K | $396K | +8.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceres · 95307 · (Tract 26.2) | $368K | $389K | +5.7% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002303) | $421K | $499K | +18.4% | |
| Waterford | $473K | $556K | +17.5% | |
| Modesto (Tract 002702) | $395K | $464K | +17.4% | |
| Modesto (Tract 001001) | $476K | $557K | +17.2% | |
| Turlock | $376K | $440K | +17.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceres · 95307 · (Tract 26.2) | $368K | $389K | $220K | |
| Modesto (Tract 003002) | $357K | $377K | $160K | |
| Modesto (Tract 002304) | $273K | $301K | $151K | |
| Modesto (Tract 000803) | $250K | $269K | $148K | |
| Modesto (Tract 001700) | $294K | $311K | $128K | |
| Turlock | $64K | $70K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.