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Garfield, CO · ZIP 81630 · Census Tract 08045952100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$315K
Downside (P10)
$271K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$332K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$477K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $211K | $201K | $188K | $188K | $197K | $213K | $204K | $225K | $251K | $310K | $315K | $327K | $322K | $332K |
| YoY Change | -5.0% | -6.1% | -0.4% | +4.9% | +8.2% | -4.4% | +10.4% | +11.8% | +23.4% | +1.7% | +3.6% | -1.5% | +3.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $271K | $278K | $271K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $380K | $413K | $477K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$271K to $380K
33.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$271K to $477K
62.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Garfield | $314K | $332K | +5.9% | |
| Rifle (Tract 952001) | $327K | $330K | +0.9% | |
| Rifle (Tract 952004) | $456K | $470K | +2.9% | |
| New Castle (Tract 951902) | $474K | $531K | +12.0% | |
| Rifle (Tract 952003) | $508K | $540K | +6.1% | |
| New Castle (Tract 951901) | $538K | $567K | +5.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Garfield | $314K | $332K | +5.9% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951702) | $664K | $766K | +15.4% | |
| New Castle | $474K | $531K | +12.0% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951804) | $1.08M | $1.17M | +9.1% | |
| Glenwood Springs (Tract 951600) | $727K | $775K | +6.6% | |
| Rifle | $508K | $540K | +6.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Garfield | $314K | $332K | $206K | |
| Rifle (Tract 952001) | $327K | $330K | $179K | |
| Rifle (Tract 952004) | $456K | $470K | $249K | |
| Rifle (Tract 952003) | $508K | $540K | $261K | |
| New Castle | $538K | $567K | $317K | |
| Glenwood Springs | $614K | $642K | $343K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.