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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Naugatuck Valley, CT · Census Tract 09140405401 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$319K
Downside (P10)
$270K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$323K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$466K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $248K | $265K | $310K | $319K | $323K | $330K | $323K | $321K |
| YoY Change | +7.0% | +16.8% | +3.0% | +1.4% | +1.9% | -2.0% | -0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $286K | $289K | $270K | $290K | ||||
| Upside (P90) | $366K | $417K | $466K | $364K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$286K to $366K
24.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$290K to $364K
23.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol · (Tract 4054.1) | $310K | $323K | +4.4% | |
| Shelton | $327K | $362K | +10.7% | |
| Ansonia | $317K | $349K | +10.1% | |
| Bristol (Tract 405801) | $316K | $330K | +4.4% | |
| Bristol (Tract 406002) | $311K | $323K | +4.1% | |
| Bristol (Tract 405900) | $322K | $319K | -1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol · (Tract 4054.1) | $310K | $323K | +4.4% | |
| Derby | $267K | $326K | +21.8% | |
| Waterbury | $208K | $248K | +18.8% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110201) | $370K | $436K | +17.9% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110602) | $479K | $564K | +17.7% | |
| Bristol | $298K | $350K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol · (Tract 4054.1) | $310K | $323K | $196K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351000) | $181K | $206K | $101K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352800) | $211K | $224K | $99K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 350200) | $185K | $203K | $97K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351100) | $150K | $163K | $85K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352701) | $142K | $160K | $81K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.