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Naugatuck Valley, CT · Census Tract 09140125400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$266K
Downside (P10)
$223K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$274K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$380K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $240K | $260K | $260K | $266K | $269K | $279K | $274K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$26,513 | -$6,213 | -$6,213 | +$3,025 | +$12,704 | +$8,026 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -10.0% | -2.3% | -2.3% | +1.1% | +4.8% | +3.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $217K | $228K | $223K | |||||
| Upside (P90) | $327K | $352K | $380K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$217K to $327K
40.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$223K to $380K
57.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansonia | $264K | $274K | +4.0% | |
| Derby | $267K | $326K | +21.8% | |
| Naugatuck (Tract 345201) | $261K | $301K | +15.4% | |
| Naugatuck (Tract 345300) | $265K | $301K | +13.6% | |
| Waterbury | $262K | $296K | +13.0% | |
| Bristol | $260K | $290K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansonia | $264K | $274K | +4.0% | |
| Derby | $267K | $326K | +21.8% | |
| Waterbury | $208K | $248K | +18.8% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110201) | $370K | $436K | +17.9% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110602) | $479K | $564K | +17.7% | |
| Bristol | $298K | $350K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansonia | $264K | $274K | $157K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351000) | $181K | $206K | $101K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352800) | $211K | $224K | $99K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 350200) | $185K | $203K | $97K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351100) | $150K | $163K | $85K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352701) | $142K | $160K | $81K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Naugatuck Valley, CT · Census Tract 09140125400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$266K
Downside (P10)
$223K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$274K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$380K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $240K | $260K | $260K | $266K | $269K | $279K | $274K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$26,513 | -$6,213 | -$6,213 | +$3,025 | +$12,704 | +$8,026 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -10.0% | -2.3% | -2.3% | +1.1% | +4.8% | +3.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $217K | $228K | $223K | |||||
| Upside (P90) | $327K | $352K | $380K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$217K to $327K
40.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$223K to $380K
57.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansonia | $264K | $274K | +4.0% | |
| Derby | $267K | $326K | +21.8% | |
| Naugatuck (Tract 345201) | $261K | $301K | +15.4% | |
| Naugatuck (Tract 345300) | $265K | $301K | +13.6% | |
| Waterbury | $262K | $296K | +13.0% | |
| Bristol | $260K | $290K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansonia | $264K | $274K | +4.0% | |
| Derby | $267K | $326K | +21.8% | |
| Waterbury | $208K | $248K | +18.8% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110201) | $370K | $436K | +17.9% | |
| Shelton (Tract 110602) | $479K | $564K | +17.7% | |
| Bristol | $298K | $350K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansonia | $264K | $274K | $157K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351000) | $181K | $206K | $101K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352800) | $211K | $224K | $99K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 350200) | $185K | $203K | $97K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 351100) | $150K | $163K | $85K | |
| Waterbury (Tract 352701) | $142K | $160K | $81K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
