Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
South Central Connecticut, CT · Census Tract 09170142605 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$195K
Downside (P10)
$164K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$199K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$266K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $217K | $200K | $186K | $195K | $193K | $196K | $199K | $194K |
| YoY Change | -7.7% | -7.2% | +5.1% | -1.0% | +1.7% | +1.5% | -2.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $166K | $171K | $164K | $169K | ||||
| Upside (P90) | $221K | $241K | $266K | $219K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$166K to $221K
28.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$169K to $219K
25.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Haven | $189K | $199K | +5.7% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171500) | $189K | $212K | +12.0% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171000) | $174K | $187K | +7.2% | |
| New Haven (Tract 142300) | $201K | $215K | +6.9% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171400) | $184K | $196K | +6.8% | |
| New Haven (Tract 142400) | $207K | $210K | +1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Haven | $189K | $199K | +5.7% | |
| New Haven (Tract 141301) | $240K | $291K | +21.2% | |
| New Haven (Tract 140500) | $368K | $443K | +20.4% | |
| Milford city (balance) | $392K | $466K | +18.8% | |
| Meriden (Tract 170200) | $172K | $203K | +17.9% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171100) | $236K | $277K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Haven | $189K | $199K | $103K | |
| Hamden | $234K | $255K | $118K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171600) | $223K | $247K | $112K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171400) | $184K | $196K | $106K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171500) | $189K | $212K | $96K | |
| New Haven | $115K | $123K | $77K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.