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South Central Connecticut, CT · Census Tract 09170171500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$194K
Downside (P10)
$175K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$212K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$271K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $174K | $182K | $186K | $194K | $196K | $203K | $212K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$19,677 | -$11,777 | -$7,777 | +$2,135 | +$8,614 | +$17,664 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -10.1% | -6.1% | -4.0% | +1.1% | +4.4% | +9.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $167K | $171K | $175K | |||||
| Upside (P90) | $230K | $249K | $271K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$167K to $230K
32.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$175K to $271K
45.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meriden | $189K | $212K | +12.0% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171000) | $174K | $187K | +7.2% | |
| New Haven (Tract 142300) | $201K | $215K | +6.9% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171400) | $184K | $196K | +6.8% | |
| New Haven (Tract 142605) | $189K | $199K | +5.7% | |
| New Haven (Tract 142400) | $207K | $210K | +1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meriden | $189K | $212K | +12.0% | |
| New Haven (Tract 141301) | $240K | $291K | +21.2% | |
| New Haven (Tract 140500) | $368K | $443K | +20.4% | |
| Milford city (balance) | $392K | $466K | +18.8% | |
| Meriden (Tract 170200) | $172K | $203K | +17.9% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171100) | $236K | $277K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meriden | $189K | $212K | $96K | |
| Hamden | $234K | $255K | $118K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171600) | $223K | $247K | $112K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171400) | $184K | $196K | $106K | |
| New Haven (Tract 142605) | $189K | $199K | $103K | |
| New Haven (Tract 361401) | $115K | $123K | $77K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
South Central Connecticut, CT · Census Tract 09170171500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$194K
Downside (P10)
$175K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$212K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$271K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $174K | $182K | $186K | $194K | $196K | $203K | $212K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$19,677 | -$11,777 | -$7,777 | +$2,135 | +$8,614 | +$17,664 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -10.1% | -6.1% | -4.0% | +1.1% | +4.4% | +9.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $167K | $171K | $175K | |||||
| Upside (P90) | $230K | $249K | $271K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$167K to $230K
32.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$175K to $271K
45.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meriden | $189K | $212K | +12.0% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171000) | $174K | $187K | +7.2% | |
| New Haven (Tract 142300) | $201K | $215K | +6.9% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171400) | $184K | $196K | +6.8% | |
| New Haven (Tract 142605) | $189K | $199K | +5.7% | |
| New Haven (Tract 142400) | $207K | $210K | +1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meriden | $189K | $212K | +12.0% | |
| New Haven (Tract 141301) | $240K | $291K | +21.2% | |
| New Haven (Tract 140500) | $368K | $443K | +20.4% | |
| Milford city (balance) | $392K | $466K | +18.8% | |
| Meriden (Tract 170200) | $172K | $203K | +17.9% | |
| Meriden (Tract 171100) | $236K | $277K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meriden | $189K | $212K | $96K | |
| Hamden | $234K | $255K | $118K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171600) | $223K | $247K | $112K | |
| Meriden (Tract 171400) | $184K | $196K | $106K | |
| New Haven (Tract 142605) | $189K | $199K | $103K | |
| New Haven (Tract 361401) | $115K | $123K | $77K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
